| Chart of the Day |
| SEPTEMBER 29, 2026 |
MONEY & MARKETS • INTEREST RATES |
|
| The Fed Cut Rates Six Times, Then Raised Them Nine Months Later. |
| When the people who set the price of money change their minds this fast, your portfolio feels it. |
|
|
|
|
| Upper bound of the federal funds target range at key policy decisions, March 2022 to September 2026. |
| Source: Federal Reserve, 2026 |
|
| On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023. Just a quarter point, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Most people shrugged. But look at that chart. Nine months ago, the Fed was still cutting rates. Six cuts in 15 months. And now... a reversal. |
| Most people assume the Fed has a grand plan. That each move is one step in some careful strategy. Look at that chart again. The Fed took rates from near zero to 5.5% in 16 months. Then it cut six times. Now it is hiking again. That is not a strategy. That is a central bank chasing an inflation number it cannot pin down. |
| And here is the part that really gets me. The last time the Fed reversed from cuts to hikes this quickly was 1998 to 1999. Three rate cuts in the fall of ’98—one of them an emergency cut between meetings—then rate hikes starting June ’99. Within a year, the dot-com bubble burst. I am not predicting a crash. But this pattern... cut, reverse, hike... has a track record. And it is not a reassuring one. |
| If you are retired or close to it, this hits you two ways. Your bond portfolio just lost value, because bond prices fall when rates rise. And the market is pricing in more. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed from 4.56% in early July to 5.17% last Friday. That is 61 basis points in under three months. Sixteen of 18 Fed officials expect at least one more hike before year-end. |
