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Yesterday the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. No surprise there. Everyone expected it.
What nobody expected was the vote count: 8–4. Four members of the twelve-person committee broke with the majority. That hasn’t happened since October 1992—when George H.W. Bush was still president and most of your grandkids weren’t born yet.
Now... here’s what most people get wrong about Fed dissents. They think it’s about one meeting. It’s not. It’s a signal. When the people inside the building can’t agree on what to do, it means the economy is sending them two different messages at the same time. Three of the dissenters—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—didn’t want the Fed hinting at future rate cuts. They see oil above $100, inflation back at 3.3%, and they think cutting is off the table. The fourth dissenter, Stephen Miran, wanted a cut right now. Same meeting. Opposite conclusions.
And here’s the part that really gets me. This was Jerome Powell’s last meeting as chairman. Eight years running the most powerful financial institution on the planet, and he walks out the door with the most fractured vote in a generation. Kevin Warsh takes over in two weeks. He’s inheriting a committee that can’t agree on whether rates should go up, down, or sideways... while a war in the Middle East keeps oil prices above $100 a barrel and CPI is running 3.3%.
Put it differently: the last time the Fed was this divided, it took two more years before they finally started raising rates again. The confusion itself is the story. When the people who set the price of money can’t agree on the price of money, you should pay attention.
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