| Chart of the Day |
| SEPTEMBER 27, 2026 |
MONEY & MARKETS |
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| The Fed Cut Rates Six Times. Then It Reversed and Hiked. |
| When the Fed changes direction this fast, your portfolio needs to hear about it. |
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| Upper bound of the federal funds target range at key decision dates. The Fed cut six times from Sep 2024 to Dec 2025, then hiked in Sep 2026. |
| Source: Federal Reserve, 2026 |
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| Go back to January. Every strategist on Wall Street was saying the same thing: rates are headed lower. The Fed had just cut six times in 15 months, bringing rates from 5.5% all the way down to 3.75%. Bond traders were pricing in at least two more cuts by summer. |
| They had it backwards. Oil pushed above $90 a barrel. Core inflation, the number the Fed watches most closely, climbed from 3.0% in December to 3.3% by midsummer. By March, the futures market flipped. Instead of betting on more cuts, traders started pricing in a hike. |
| On September 16, it happened. The Fed raised rates a quarter point to 4.0%. First increase in three years. Unanimous vote, 12 to 0. Look at that uptick on the right side of the chart. That is not a blip. That is the Fed telling you inflation is not done. |
| If you locked in a 3% mortgage in 2021, congratulations... you own one of the best financial deals in America right now. If you have been parked in a money market fund waiting for lower rates to buy bonds, that window may be closing. The Fed’s own projections show another hike possible before December. |
| Now think about what that means. The consensus rate forecast for 2026 was not just wrong... it was backwards. The people who get paid to predict rates missed the direction entirely. And the Fed’s updated projections point to rates near 4% through 2027. |
