Chart of the Day — June 24, 2026

Chart of the Day

June 24, 2026

Demographics • Population

America Had 4.3 Million Babies in 2007. Last Year, 3.6 Million.

That’s 700,000 fewer future workers, taxpayers, and customers — every single year.

U.S. Total Fertility Rate (Children per Woman)

3.65	1.84	2.08	2.06	1.93	1.64	1.57

1960	1980	1990	2000	2010	2020	2025

Replacement level = 2.1 children per woman. The U.S. last touched it in 2007.

Source: CDC National Center for Health Statistics, 2026

You probably remember when a new school opened in your town every few years. Now they’re closing. That’s not a local budget story. That’s demographics.

The CDC released its provisional birth data for 2025 earlier this year. The number: 3,606,400 babies born in America. Down 1% from 2024. Down 700,000 from the 2007 peak of 4.3 million. The total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman will have over her lifetime — hit 1.57. That’s the lowest number ever recorded in the United States. Replacement level is 2.1.

Now, most people hear “birth rate” and think culture war. But this isn’t a left or right story. It’s a math story. Fewer babies in 2025 means fewer 18-year-olds in 2043. Fewer workers. Fewer taxpayers. Fewer people paying into Social Security and Medicare while more people are drawing from it.

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Chart of the Day — June 24, 2026 (Part 2)

And here’s the part that really gets me. Look at the chart. We almost recovered in the 1990s and 2000s. The fertility rate climbed back above 2.0. Then the 2008 recession hit... and it never came back. Not when the economy recovered. Not when unemployment fell. Not during the boom years of 2017–2019. The line just kept dropping.

Japan has been living this story for 30 years. Their workforce shrank. Their economy stalled. Their debt-to-GDP ratio topped 200%. That’s not a prediction for America. But it’s a warning. When fewer young people show up to work, to start businesses, to buy homes — the math changes for everyone. Including retirees counting on their portfolio to last.

Every conversation about the future of Social Security, the housing market, or long-term stock returns eventually runs into this chart. Most people just haven’t seen it yet.

What happens to your retirement if the dollar drops another 25%?

Your retirement account still shows $500,000.

But that $500,000 buys what $375,000 bought in 2020.

Nobody warned you. Nobody asked your permission. The government printed trillions, ran up $39 trillion in debt, and your dollars quietly lost a quarter of their value.

Now the conditions for another 25% drop are worse.

A new Fed Chair taking over May 15th who wants to cut rates below inflation. That's not an accident. It's a strategy called financial repression. It makes the government's debt cheaper by making your savings worth less.

40 countries are abandoning the dollar. Central banks are dumping Treasuries and buying gold at the fastest pace in 60 years. The petrodollar system that held everything together for 50 years is cracking.

If the dollar drops another 25%, your $500,000 buys what $280,000 used to.

How long can you retire on that?

Same house. Same groceries. Same prescriptions. Same life. But every single month it costs more and your money covers less.

There's a reason central banks aren't holding dollars anymore. There's a reason there's legislation in Congress to revalue gold. There's a reason the Treasury Secretary is talking about "monetizing the assets."

They see the next 25% coming. The question is whether you do too.

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Chart of the Day — June 24, 2026 (Part 3)

The Takeaway

“The U.S. fertility rate just hit an all-time low of 1.57 children per woman — well below the 2.1 needed to keep the population steady. America is producing 700,000 fewer babies a year than it did in 2007. That’s 700,000 fewer future workers funding your Social Security check.”

If your retirement plan assumes the next 20 years will look like the last 20 — same growth, same tax base, same workforce — this chart says think again. That’s worth a conversation with your advisor. Not about panic. About assumptions.

More tomorrow. Stay sharp.

— Ray Calloway

The U.S. Fertility Rate Hit 1.57 Last Year — The Lowest Number Ever Recorded

America Had 4.3 Million Babies in 2007. Last Year, 3.6 Million.

This Startup is Growing 23X Faster than Nvidia

What happens to your retirement if the dollar drops another 25%?

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