| Chart of the Day |
| NOVEMBER 4, 2026 |
MONEY & MARKETS • ENERGY |
|
| Oil Is Up 57% This Year. Every Spike Like This Since 1973 Has Led to a Recession. |
| You see it at the pump. The real damage shows up in your portfolio. |
|
|
|
|
| Monthly average Brent crude price in U.S. dollars per barrel, 2026. Peak intraday price hit $126 in April. |
| Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2026 |
|
| In January, a barrel of Brent crude cost $67. This morning it’s $105. Oil is up 57% for the year. And on Monday night, U.S. forces hit Iran’s Qeshm Island... right at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world’s oil passes through every single day. |
| Most people look at the gas pump, grumble about $4.15 a gallon, and move on. They figure it’s temporary. “It’ll come down once things settle in the Middle East.” Maybe. But the data says something different. |
| Since 1973, there have been at least seven major oil spikes of 50% or more. The Arab embargo. The Iranian Revolution. The Gulf War. The 1999-2000 doubling. The 2008 run-up. The 2020-21 rebound. The Russia-Ukraine shock in 2022. Every single one was followed by a recession or a sharp economic slowdown. Not sometimes. Every time. Oil doesn’t just make your commute expensive. It raises the cost of shipping, manufacturing, food, and everything that moves by truck, train, or cargo ship. It’s a tax on the whole economy... and nobody voted for it. |
| Now look at the chart. Oil spiked in March when the Iran war broke out. It pulled back over the summer when ceasefire talks gained traction. Then it climbed right back. That W-shaped pattern is what keeps economists up at night, because it means the shock isn’t fading. It’s settling in. If you’re retired or close to it, sustained $100-plus oil means higher prices on everything you buy, and it puts pressure on corporate earnings... which puts pressure on your portfolio. |
