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You don’t need a poll to know what Americans think about the cost of living in California. You just need to count the U-Hauls heading east on I-10.
Last year, 229,000 more people left California than moved in. That’s 628 people a day. New York lost another 138,000. Illinois, New Jersey, and Massachusetts each lost tens of thousands more. Add it up since 2020, and the five biggest blue states have shed 3.5 million residents to other states. Not to other countries. To other states.
Now... where are they going? North Carolina led with 84,000 net new arrivals. Texas pulled in 67,000. South Carolina, 67,000. Tennessee, 42,000. Look at the list of winners and you see low taxes, cheaper housing, and state governments that aren’t trying to run your life. The typical home in California costs $905,000. In South Carolina, it’s $360,000. Tennessee charges zero state income tax. California charges 13.3%.
Here’s what most people get wrong. They think this is just about weather or retirement. It’s not. This is families in their 30s and 40s who looked at a $900,000 starter home in the Bay Area, looked at a $350,000 home in Greenville, and made the only rational choice. Meanwhile, the Fed held rates steady yesterday — but three officials voted to hike. Either way, mortgage rates stay above 6%. That makes the gap between a $905,000 California home and a $360,000 South Carolina home feel even wider.
And here’s the part that really gets me. When people leave, they take their income with them. Their spending. Their tax base. California’s budget gets thinner... which means higher taxes on whoever stays... which means more people leave. It’s a flywheel, and it’s been spinning since 2020.
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