Yesterday the government told us inflation was 3.8%. This morning, the wholesale price report came in even hotter — producer prices up 6% over the last year, the biggest jump since late 2022. Wall Street expected 0.5% for the month. They got 1.4%. Nearly triple the forecast.

But here’s what most people get wrong about a number like “3.8%.” That’s an average. It includes things like used cars (flat) and new cars (down slightly). It’s designed to smooth things out. The problem is, your life isn’t smooth. You drive a truck. You heat your house. You buy ground beef on Wednesday and fly to see the grandkids on Friday.

And those things — the things that actually show up in your wallet — are running at 15%, 28%, even 54%. Fuel oil alone is up more than half. Gas is $4.50 a gallon nationally, up from $3.14 a year ago. Beef is up nearly 15% year-over-year. A flight that cost $300 last spring costs $363 now.

And here’s the part that really gets me. Real wages — what you earn after subtracting inflation — fell 0.3% over the past year. So prices are up and your paycheck buys less. That’s not an abstract economic statistic. That’s the reason the checkout line feels heavier than it used to.

The Middle East conflict is pushing energy costs through the entire supply chain — from the refinery to the trucking company to the shelf at your local store. Today’s wholesale report confirms it: those costs haven’t peaked yet. What manufacturers pay today, you pay at the register next month.

If you’re retired or near retired, this matters more to you than to a 30-year-old still getting raises. Fixed income meets rising prices — that’s a math problem worth solving now, not later. Take a fresh look at where your monthly spending actually goes. If most of it is energy, food, and shelter, your personal inflation rate isn’t 3.8%. It’s probably double that. That’s worth a conversation with your advisor this week. Not next month. This week.