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Gold crossed $4,685 an ounce this morning. Most people see that number and think “bubble.” They compare it to the $1,800 price from early 2022 and figure it’s speculation — traders chasing momentum, the usual crowd piling in late. And that’s what makes this rally so misunderstood. Because the biggest buyers of gold since 2022 aren’t hedge funds. They’re not retail investors watching YouTube videos about the end of the dollar. They’re central banks — the institutions that actually print the currencies you and I hold in our wallets.
Now... here’s what most people get wrong about central bank gold buying. They think it’s always been like this. It hasn’t. From 2010 to 2021, central banks worldwide bought an average of 473 tonnes a year. Steady. Unremarkable. It barely moved the market. Then in February 2022, the U.S. and Europe froze $300 billion in Russian foreign reserves. Every central banker on earth watched that happen — and every one of them asked the same question: “Could they do that to us?”
That year, they bought 1,082 tonnes of gold. A record going back to the 1950s. Then 1,037 the next year. Then 1,045 after that. Three straight years above 1,000 tonnes — something that had never happened before in modern history. Even 2025, which slowed to 863 tonnes as gold prices hit record highs, was still nearly double the old average. And the first quarter of 2026? Central banks bought 244 tonnes in just three months — on pace for another 975+ tonne year.
And here’s the part that really gets me. It’s not one country doing this. Poland added 102 tonnes last year and has already bought 31 more in Q1. China, India, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, the Czech Republic — 23 different nations added gold in just the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, the dollar’s share of global reserves has drifted from 72% in 2001 to about 56% today. Gold is going the other direction.
Let me put that differently. These aren’t traders. Central banks don’t buy gold for momentum. They buy on 10- and 20-year horizons. When they double their buying rate and hold it for four years running, that’s not a trade.
That’s a vote.
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